The U.S. trucking industry is in a slow recovery after bottoming out in early 2023. While 2025 is expected to bring gradual improvements, the pace of recovery depends on demand, market capacity, and economic conditions.
For trucking companies and freight operators, understanding freight volume trends and rate predictions is crucial for planning ahead. Below, we break down what to expect for truck volumes and freight rates in 2025.
Freight Volume Predictions for 2025
Freight demand is projected by ACT Research to grow 2.1% year-over-year in early 2025. While this signals an upward trend for volume in trucking, demand is still lower than pre-pandemic levels due to inventory management strategies and changes in supply chain operations.
4 Factors Affecting Volume
- Private Fleet Expansion: More companies are investing in their own truck fleets instead of using for-hire carriers, reducing available freight volume for independent trucking businesses.
- Economic Growth: The U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.1% in 2025, providing stable but moderate support for freight demand.
- Trade Policy Uncertainty: Potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico could disrupt cross-border shipments, impacting truck volumes in international freight.
- Inventory Adjustments: Companies are keeping tighter control over inventory levels, reducing the need for frequent high-volume shipments.
Challenges to Watch
- Freight demand remains below historical averages due to shifts in business supply chains.
- Export demand is slowing, as a strong U.S. dollar makes American goods more expensive overseas.
- Consumer spending is uncertain, with inflation concerns affecting purchasing habits.
Freight Rate Predictions for 2025
ACT Research predicts modest freight increases in early 2025, but a full recovery remains slow due to excess truck capacity. Temporary trucking rate spikes may occur in Q1 due to winter weather and pre-tariff inventory stocking, but long-term gains will depend on how quickly excess trucks are removed from the market.
4 Factors Affecting Rates
- Capacity Rebalancing: Too many trucks are still available for the level of freight demand, which continues to suppress rate growth.
- Market Costs: Fuel prices and operating costs are rising, which could lead to gradual rate increases if demand supports it.
- Regulatory & Trade Impacts: New tariffs and potential changes to EPA trucking regulations could increase costs for carriers, leading to some rate volatility in certain markets.
- Seasonal Fluctuations: Spot rates may rise in Q1 due to weather-driven disruptions and businesses stocking up before tariffs, but long-term improvements will require more balance between supply and demand.
Challenges to Watch
- Rates will likely stay lower than pre-pandemic levels until excess trucking capacity is reduced.
- The spot market remains unpredictable, making pricing stability difficult.
- Uncertain trade policies could lead to rapid shifts in demand and pricing.
Stay Ahead of the Road in 2025 with Comfort and Safety
In 2025, the trucking industry will continue its slow recovery, with freight volumes expected to grow by 2.1% and rates seeing modest improvements. However, excess capacity and trade uncertainties mean that full recovery will take time. Trucking businesses must stay adaptable and prepared for shifting market conditions.
One thing that never changes is the importance of driver comfort and safety. Whether you're an owner-operator or managing a fleet, having high-quality, ergonomic truck seats can make long hours on the road more comfortable and reduce fatigue. Suburban Seating & Safety offers a wide selection of aftermarket truck seats, designed for durability, support, and enhanced driver performance.
As the trucking industry moves forward, make sure your fleet is equipped for success. Upgrade your truck seats today with Suburban Seating & Safety!
Sources:
ACT Research. Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025.
